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2019財政年度美國國家債務大增1.2萬億美元,總量相當于GDP的106.5%

2019年10月4日 12:28:50

本文來源于微信公眾號“市川新田三丁目”,原作者Wolf Richter, 編譯王為。

But what happens if there’s actually a recession?

如果美國經濟真來個衰退會發生什么?

The US gross national debt jumped by $110 billion on the last two business days of Fiscal Year 2019, and by a breath-taking $1.2 trillion during the entire fiscal year, after having already jumped by $1.27 trillion in Fiscal 2018, the Treasury Department reported today. This ballooned the US gross national debt to a vertigo-inducing $22.72 trillion.

2019年10月1日美國財政部發布報告稱,在美國2019財年即將結束的最后兩天里,美國政府債務總量增加了1100億美元,全財年政府債務新增了1.2萬億美元,而在2018財年里美國政府債務總量已經增加了1.27萬億美元,受此影響,美國政府債務總量已達到足以令人感到頭暈目眩的22.72萬億美元。

美國政府債務總額每日更新數據發布在美國財政部的網頁上www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm

These beautiful trillions whipping by are a joy to behold: so much action in so little time. The flat spots in the chart below are the results of the debt-ceiling charade in Congress. When the debt ceiling is lifted, the debt spikes back to trend, and nothing changed:

看著這些金額數以萬億美元地增長是一件非常有意思的事情,在如此短的時間里金額增長如此之快。下圖中平的部分是聯邦政府與美國國會就是否提升債務上限而裝腔作勢爭奪一番的結果,當債務上限被上調后,政府債務重回上升軌道,一切與往常一樣:

During Fiscal 2019, the gross national debt increased by 5.6% and now amounts to 106.5% of current-dollar GDP, up from 105.4% at the end of Fiscal 2018.

在2019財年,美國政府債務增加了5.6%,如今總額相當于GDP的106.5%,高于2018財年105.4%的比率。

The thing to remember here is that this isn’t the Great Recession or the Financial Crisis, when over 10 million people lost their jobs and credit froze up and companies went bankrupt and tax revenues plunged while outlays soared to pay for unemployment insurance and the like. This isn’t even the Collapse of Everything, but the longest expansion of the economy in US history.

要注意這可不比1930年代的大蕭條或2008年金融大危機那會兒,那時有上千萬美國人失去工作,信貸渠道凍結,企業破產,預算收入大減但政府用于失業保險等用途的開支卻猛增,現在可是美國歷史上經濟成長持續時間最長的時期。

Over the last four quarters, the US economy as measured by nominal GDP (not adjusted for inflation) grew by 4.0%. Over the same period, the US gross national debt grew by 5.6% (not adjusted for inflation).

過去四個季度,按名義GDP計算即未對通脹率進行調整的美國經濟增速為4.0% ,在此期間,美國政府債務總額增長了5.6%(亦未對通脹率進行調整)。

In dollar terms, it looks even funnier: The economy as measured by nominal GDP over the past four quarters grew by $830 billion. The Gross National Debt grew by $1.2 trillion.

如果看絕對值,就更搞笑了:美國名義GDP在過去四個季度里增加了8300億美元,而政府債務總額增加了1.2萬億美元。

How can this be?

為啥會這樣?

For the first 11 months of Fiscal 2019 through August, the latest data available from the Treasury Department:

美國財政部提供了在截止到2019年8月份的2019財年前11個月的預算收支情況:

**Tax receipts increased by 3.4%, less than the growth of the economy (4.0%), thanks to the tax cuts.

稅收收入增長了3.4%,低于GDP同期4.0%的增速,原因是受到減稅的影響;

**Outlays soared by 7.0%, far outpacing economic growth (4.0%), as no one in Congress or in the White House even pays lip service anymore to the idea of budgetary discipline during good times.

財政開支增長7.0%,遠超GDP的增速,在美國國會或白宮里甚至沒人在當前這個經濟尚好的時期提到應加強預算紀律這件事。

**With tax receipts growing more slowly than the economy, and outlays soaring 7.0%, it’s hard to have a recession, when you think about it. You’re buying the continued expansion, but you’re paying a very high price for that extra stretch, because some day, that expansion will end, and then what remains is the debt.

由于稅收收入的增速低于整個經濟的增速,而支出卻大增7.0%,動腦筋一想就知道美國經濟很難陷入衰退。美國現在的經濟擴張等于是花錢買來的,但代價不低,因為總會一天經濟擴張會走到盡頭,剩下的全是債。

And that debt will then reallyblow out because, as they always do during a recession, receipts will plunge and outlays will spiral higher.

債務問題終有爆發的一天,因為正如在以往歷次經濟危機期間所發生的情況一樣,財政收入會大幅減少而支出卻會大幅增加。

But no problem, it’s just some trillions.

但這都不是事,只是幾萬億美元的問題而已

The thing is, I get to write these articles once a year, every year, and have been for years, because it’s the same fiasco every year, all over again, only now it’s a little bigger.

事實上我每年都寫一篇文章談這個話題,每年都寫,已經好幾年了,因為問題每年都這么嚴峻,一而再再而三,只是如今欠的債又多了一些。

From Fiscal 2012, after the Great Recession was declared over and done with, through Fiscal 2016, the gross national debt increased on average by $947 billion per year. In Fiscal 2018 and Fiscal 2019, the gross national debt increased on average by $1.23 trillion per year.

從2012財年開始也就是肇端于2008年的金融危機被宣布已經完結后開始,一直到2016財年,美國政府債務平均每年增長9470億美元,在2018和2019財年,美國政府債務平均每年增長1.23萬億美元。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell keeps saying that the US is on an “unsustainable fiscal path,” which is fine and dandy, but every time he says this, he sounds like a fossil that is completely out of touch with reality in Congress where all this got passed. “Sustain” for these folks in Congress means sustaining their campaign funds and sustaining them through the next election.

聯儲主席鮑威爾一直在講“美國的財政收支狀況是無法持續下去的”,話是沒錯,但他每次說這話的時候,就好比是個老古董遠遠脫離美國國會發生的實際情況,在那里美國政府的預算案每次都能獲得通過。對于國會那幫人來說,“可持續性”指的是他們競選資金的可持續性以保障他們能夠一直混到下次國會議員選舉。


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